Country Profile - China      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for China
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for China -
Population - Million People - -
     2025: 1,421
     2030: 1,409
     2060: 1,166
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2025: -0.146
     2030: -0.238
     2060: -1.049
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 7.294
     2030: 7.402
     2060: 6.286
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 8.540
     2030: 9.579
     2060: 16.57
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2025: 5.949
     2030: 5.230
     2060: 2.833
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2025: 78.29
     2030: 78.99
     2060: 82.95
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2025: 75.35
     2030: 76.00
     2060: 79.79
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2025: 81.34
     2030: 82.07
     2060: 86.07
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2025: 1.222
     2030: 1.327
     2060: 1.453
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2025: 0.050
     2030: 0.046
     2060: 0.015
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2025: 54.34
     2030: 51.83
     2060: 37.41
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2025: 225.1
     2030: 186.3
     2060: 125.1
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2025: 986.2
     2030: 969.9
     2060: 652.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2025: 209.7
     2030: 252.3
     2060: 388.3
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2025: 950.5
     2030: 1,019
     2060: 984.1
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2025: 0.523
     2030: 0.512
     2060: 0.438
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2025: 46.33
     2030: 47.31
     2060: 49.58

Health Forecast for China -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2025: 9.924
     2030: 10.92
     2060: 14.08
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2025: 26.00
     2030: 26.59
     2060: 27.65
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2025: 2.187
     2030: 2.012
     2060: 1.663
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 1.761
     2030: 0.740
     2060: 0.000
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.001

Education Forecast for China -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2025: 101.5
     2030: 101.2
     2060: 100.00
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2025: 97.07
     2030: 98.01
     2060: 100.00
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 100.5
     2030: 102.0
     2060: 101.9
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 85.56
     2030: 88.14
     2060: 98.69
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 52.81
     2030: 54.74
     2060: 68.52
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2025: 8.735
     2030: 9.126
     2060: 11.46
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2025: 97.53
     2030: 98.15
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for China
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 0.589
     2030: 0.199
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 12.31
     2030: 5.424
     2060: 0.016
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 0.913
     2030: 0.927
     2060: 0.997
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 2.483
     2030: 2.055
     2060: 1.124
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2025: 3,374
     2030: 3,463
     2060: 3,722
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2025: -0.189
     2030: -0.174
     2060: -0.025
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2025: -0.829
     2030: -0.790
     2060: -0.581

Economy Forecast for China
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 26,823
     2030: 31,079
     2060: 54,628
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 18,224
     2030: 22,687
     2060: 50,610
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 18.88
     2030: 22.06
     2060: 46.85
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2025: 0.377
     2030: 0.376
     2060: 0.353
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2025: 20.98
     2030: 20.49
     2060: 23.62
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2025: 55.49
     2030: 58.31
     2060: 74.35

Energy Forecast for China
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2025: 1.324
     2030: 1.218
     2060: 0.420

Environment Forecast for China
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2025: 3.049
     2030: 3.097
     2060: 2.199

International Politics Forecast for China
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2025: 9.303
     2030: 10.50
     2060: 14.04

Domestic Government Forecast for China
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2025: 3.073
     2030: 3.156
     2060: 3.644
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2025: 3.651
     2030: 4.179
     2060: 7.990
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2025: 4.596
     2030: 5.021
     2060: 8.352
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2025: 3.250
     2030: 3.350
     2060: 3.852
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2025: 6.616
     2030: 6.694
     2060: 7.087