Country Profile - Ethiopia      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Ethiopia
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Ethiopia -
Population - Million People - -
     2025: 133.9
     2030: 151.9
     2060: 249.4
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2025: 2.635
     2030: 2.398
     2060: 0.948
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 31.42
     2030: 28.62
     2060: 14.57
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 4.965
     2030: 4.552
     2060: 5.048
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2025: 31.35
     2030: 24.98
     2060: 6.073
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2025: 70.94
     2030: 72.69
     2060: 79.18
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2025: 69.08
     2030: 70.81
     2060: 77.17
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2025: 72.83
     2030: 74.61
     2060: 81.25
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2025: 3.981
     2030: 3.621
     2060: 1.872
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2025: 0.456
     2030: 0.390
     2060: 0.088
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2025: 19.31
     2030: 20.77
     2060: 18.77
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2025: 51.64
     2030: 56.72
     2060: 59.04
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2025: 77.68
     2030: 89.36
     2060: 168.6
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2025: 4.586
     2030: 5.789
     2060: 21.80
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2025: 31.96
     2030: 39.83
     2060: 115.7
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2025: 0.481
     2030: 0.483
     2060: 0.467
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2025: 47.80
     2030: 48.60
     2060: 49.91

Health Forecast for Ethiopia -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2025: 0.345
     2030: 0.518
     2060: 1.990
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2025: 4.935
     2030: 5.151
     2060: 7.274
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2025: 17.53
     2030: 14.76
     2060: 4.594
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 18.09
     2030: 15.58
     2060: 3.705
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 19.57
     2030: 17.06
     2060: 5.313

Education Forecast for Ethiopia -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2025: 114.7
     2030: 118.3
     2060: 113.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2025: 86.84
     2030: 89.17
     2060: 97.16
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 51.80
     2030: 61.83
     2060: 90.61
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 22.21
     2030: 25.63
     2060: 60.84
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 12.93
     2030: 15.49
     2060: 32.49
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2025: 3.263
     2030: 3.722
     2060: 6.937
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2025: 55.56
     2030: 60.28
     2060: 91.76

Social/Human Forecast for Ethiopia
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 18.33
     2030: 13.11
     2060: 0.241
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 57.43
     2030: 48.88
     2060: 4.082
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 0.620
     2030: 0.653
     2060: 0.853
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 31.69
     2030: 28.23
     2060: 6.438
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2025: 2,526
     2030: 2,607
     2060: 3,071
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2025: -0.120
     2030: -0.140
     2060: -0.233
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2025: -0.568
     2030: -0.520
     2060: -0.207

Economy Forecast for Ethiopia
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 338.3
     2030: 442.0
     2060: 2,069
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 135.4
     2030: 186.8
     2060: 1,313
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 2.526
     2030: 2.911
     2060: 8.296
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2025: 0.352
     2030: 0.357
     2060: 0.335
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2025: 29.82
     2030: 30.28
     2060: 7.149
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2025: 10.91
     2030: 12.15
     2060: 23.55

Energy Forecast for Ethiopia
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2025: 0.046
     2030: 0.036
     2060: 0.001

Environment Forecast for Ethiopia
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2025: 0.010
     2030: 0.014
     2060: 0.094

International Politics Forecast for Ethiopia
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2025: 0.122
     2030: 0.131
     2060: 0.301

Domestic Government Forecast for Ethiopia
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2025: 5.197
     2030: 5.496
     2060: 7.348
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2025: 11.50
     2030: 12.21
     2060: 16.35
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2025: 3.860
     2030: 4.002
     2060: 5.153
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2025: 2.008
     2030: 2.121
     2060: 2.911
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2025: 5.948
     2030: 6.042
     2060: 6.692