Country Profile - Poland      IFs Version 8.28
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Learn more about the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
korbel.du.edu/pardee


     Forecast Categories for Poland
     Population
     Health
     Education
     Social/Human
     Economy
     Energy
     Environment
     International Politics
     Domestic Government

Population Forecast for Poland -
Population - Million People - -
     2025: 37.93
     2030: 37.14
     2060: 30.04
Population growth rate - Annual Percent - -
     2025: -0.358
     2030: -0.489
     2060: -0.914
Crude birthrate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 8.082
     2030: 7.482
     2060: 6.833
Crude death rate - per Thousand - -
     2025: 11.46
     2030: 12.11
     2060: 15.66
Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births - Deaths per Thousand Live Births - -
     2025: 3.076
     2030: 2.854
     2060: 1.928
Life expectancy - Total - Years - -
     2025: 78.87
     2030: 79.64
     2060: 83.91
Life expectancy - Male - Years - -
     2025: 74.88
     2030: 75.61
     2060: 79.83
Life expectancy - Female - Years - -
     2025: 82.61
     2030: 83.40
     2060: 87.66
Total fertility rate (births per woman over lifetime) - Births per Woman - -
     2025: 1.394
     2030: 1.415
     2060: 1.511
HIV infection, rate, percentage of adult population - Percent - -
     2025: 0.085
     2030: 0.077
     2060: 0.025
Population, aged 0 to 5 - Million People - -
     2025: 1.651
     2030: 1.457
     2060: 1.065
Population, aged 15 years or less - Million People - -
     2025: 5.498
     2030: 5.022
     2060: 3.489
Population, aged 15 to 65 - Million People - -
     2025: 24.37
     2030: 23.66
     2060: 16.00
Population, aged more than 65 years - Million People - -
     2025: 8.059
     2030: 8.457
     2060: 10.55
Population in urban areas - Million People - -
     2025: 22.71
     2030: 22.56
     2060: 19.58
Labor participation rate - Ratio - -
     2025: 0.466
     2030: 0.464
     2060: 0.410
Female share of the labor force - Percent of Labor Force - -
     2025: 46.00
     2030: 47.00
     2060: 49.47

Health Forecast for Poland -
Obesity Rate - Total - Percent of Adults 30 Years and Older - -
     2025: 23.86
     2030: 24.84
     2060: 27.60
Smoking Rate (Adults 30+) - Total - Percent of Adults - -
     2025: 29.01
     2030: 28.47
     2060: 26.05
Malnourished children (under 5) as percent - Percent of All Children - -
     2025: 1.929
     2030: 1.851
     2060: 1.680
Malnourished children as percent, Smith and Haddad Formulation - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 2.201
     2030: 1.925
     2060: 2.585
Malnourished population as percent - Percent of Population - -
     2025: 0.000
     2030: 0.000
     2060: 0.009

Education Forecast for Poland -
Education, primary, enrollment rate, gross - Total - Enrollment Rate - -
     2025: 102.2
     2030: 101.5
     2060: 100.0
Education, primary, enrollment rate, net - Total - Percent of Children Enrolled - -
     2025: 99.44
     2030: 100.0
     2060: 100.0
Education, Lower Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 108.8
     2030: 109.0
     2060: 101.9
Education, Upper Secondary, gross enrollment (% of age group) - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 110.6
     2030: 108.7
     2060: 102.6
Education, tertiary, gross enrolment rate - Total - Percent - -
     2025: 70.00
     2030: 71.38
     2060: 80.59
Education, years obtained by population 25+ - Total - Years Completed - -
     2025: 12.44
     2030: 12.62
     2060: 13.59
Literacy, percentage of population, 15 and older - Percent of Population 15 and Older - -
     2025: 99.12
     2030: 99.44
     2060: 100.0

Social/Human Forecast for Poland
Population with income less than $2.15 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 0.027
     2030: 0.011
     2060: 0.000
Population with income less than $3.65 per day, log normal computation (in 2017 US Dollars) - Million People - -
     2025: 0.027
     2030: 0.011
     2060: 0.000
Human development index, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 0.957
     2030: 0.969
     2060: 1.000
Human poverty index 1, UN Development Program's measure - Index - -
     2025: 1.025
     2030: 0.916
     2060: 0.713
Calories per capita available - Total - Kilocalories per Person per Day - -
     2025: 3,589
     2030: 3,655
     2060: 3,828
Traditional/Secular-Rational index - Total - Index - -
     2025: 0.098
     2030: 0.143
     2060: 0.430
Survival/self-expression index - Total - Index - -
     2025: -0.370
     2030: -0.294
     2060: 0.112

Economy Forecast for Poland
Gross domestic product at PPP - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 1,356
     2030: 1,496
     2060: 2,342
Gross domestic product - Billion 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 684.0
     2030: 823.6
     2060: 1,647
GDP per capita at PPP (2017 Thousand US Dollars) - Thousand 2017 Dollars - -
     2025: 35.77
     2030: 40.28
     2060: 77.97
Domestic GINI index of inequality (larger is more unequal, from 0 to 1) - Index - -
     2025: 0.287
     2030: 0.288
     2060: 0.292
Globalization level index, base years values from 0-100 (highest) - Index - -
     2025: 36.90
     2030: 37.14
     2060: 45.06
Knowledge society index; base year 0-100 (better) - Index - -
     2025: 55.12
     2030: 58.63
     2060: 66.49

Energy Forecast for Poland
Energy production - Oil - Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent - -
     2025: 0.007
     2030: 0.008
     2060: 0.003

Environment Forecast for Poland
Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels - Billion Tons - -
     2025: 0.083
     2030: 0.086
     2060: 0.075

International Politics Forecast for Poland
Diplomacy, Military, and Economic (DiME) Power Index - Index - -
     2025: 0.657
     2030: 0.697
     2060: 0.774

Domestic Government Forecast for Poland
Freedom House freedom indicator (higher is more democratic;2-14;reversed from Freedom House) - Index - -
     2025: 12.07
     2030: 12.18
     2060: 12.81
Democracy, Polity index (Range: 0-20; higher is better) - Index - -
     2025: 19.96
     2030: 19.94
     2060: 20.00
Government corruption perception, based on TI (higher is less corrupt) - Index - -
     2025: 6.139
     2030: 6.764
     2060: 10.00
Government effectiveness (quality), factor score; higher is better - Index - -
     2025: 2.953
     2030: 3.080
     2060: 3.811
Economic freedom, Fraser Institute/Econ Freedom Network freedom indicator (higher more free) - Index - -
     2025: 7.251
     2030: 7.309
     2060: 7.632