3. Land. We used the WRI database (CD-ROM) to obtain land in crop, grazing, forest, other, and total for 1961-1994/5. Had started using FAO hardcopy, but switched to WRI. Converted from 1000 hectares to millions. We used 1961 data for 1960. The historic data set did not have values for the former Soviet Republics or the components of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. So we used the 1995 data file values for those countries in 1960. The value for total land area in the 1995 data load appeared to be in 100s of hectares, not thousands. Filled historic column with data in million hectares.
A problem arose with data for the former Soviet Republics and the components of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia prior to 1992, namely no data. We filled in the pre-1992 fields with 1991 values [this is yet to be done – have Nyema do it].
4. Agricultural production. We used the WRI database (CD-ROM) also to obtain agricultural production. Although production has been put into the historic database for cereals, roots/tubers, and pulses (not yet for vegetables and fruit), the preprocessor only needs historic data for total agricultural (crop) production. [Have not yet put historic values for cereals, etc. into agricultural history table of IFs.mdb, and perhaps not wise to do so – need only AGP total. Having Nyema get AGP indices, per capita indices, to allow computation back to 1960. ]
In bringing the historic series into the 1960 data load we encountered the following issues (should go back and break Soviet production for 1960 along proportional lines of 1992):
· Meat production. Had only 1960, 1970 data (Nyema retrieved from FAO yearbooks). Put guess in for Russian Federation, but need to divide Soviet production for 1960 (do not have) by republic values in 199x and do same for Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.
5. Ocean and fish production. Have country marine fish catch from WRI. Need to put into RFFSH; preprocessor will normalize to OFSCTH. Have set up an historic global parameter file with parameters that need to change between future and historic runs. Have already put an historic value for global OFSCTH into that. Unlikely that we will be able to obtain aquaculture data back to 1960 – check Worldwatch for data series.
6. Agricultural trade. Nyema has gotten data on trade in pulses, to augment trade in cereals (says units are million metric tons, but look too big for that; cereal trade was earlier converted from thousand to million and these were not). [I donsee that trade in pulses, did he actually get it?] Have cereal trade so can add cereal and pulses (missing fruits and vegetables). In past, we used cereals alone for “crop” trade, and may have to do it again. But do not have meat trade.
7. Agricultural data added to historic data tables
Cereal exports, million metric tons, 1961-95 (from WRI)
Cereal imports, million metric tons, 1961-95 (from WRI)
Pulse exports, million metric tons, 1961-94 (from WRI)
Fish, freshwater catch in million metric tons, 1960-95 (from WRI)
Fish, marine catch in million metric tons, 1960-95 (from WRI)
Land for crops, million hectares, 1961-95 (from WRI)
Land for grazing, million hectares, 1961-94 (from WRI)
Land under forest, million hectares, 1961-94 (from WRI)
Land, all other, million hectares, 1961-94 (from WRI)
Land area, total, million hectares, 1961-94 (from WRI)
Note: Land data for Belgium and Luxembourg missing, probably because are totaled by WRI.
Cereal production, million metric tons, 1961-96 (from WRI)
Roots and tuber production, million metric tons, 1961-96 (from WRI)
Pulse production, million metric tons, 1961-96 (from WRI)
Water, annual renewable resources in cubic km, approximately 1995 (from WRI)
Water, annual withdrawals in cubic km, approximately 1995, asst years(from WRI)
Water, annual ground recharge in cubic km, approximately 1995 (from WRI)
Water, annual groundwater withdrawals in cubic km, approximately 1995, asst years (from WRI)
8. Agricultural data added to historic data load for 1960
Land for crops, million hectares. Used 1961 value from WRI and used 1995 values for former Soviet Republics, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Because arable and permanent cropland did not change much for USSR from 1961 to 1990, this is probably OK for FSU Republics. Arable and permanent cropland decreased by about 10% from 1961 to 1990 for Czechoslovakia and the former Yugoslavia, so probably should reduce these numbers a bit.
Land for grazing, million hectares. Used 1961 values from WRI and used 1995 values for former Soviet Republics, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Value of permanent pasture changed in those countries about 10% one way or another over the 30 years before dissolution, so probably should adjust.
Land in forest, million hectares. Used 1961 values from WRI and used 1995 values for former Soviet Republics, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Value of permanent pasture increased slightly in those countries over the 30 years before dissolution, so probably should adjust.
Land all other, million hectares. Used 1961 values from WRI and used 1995 values for former Soviet Republics, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Value of all other land increased somewhat in those countries over the 30 years before dissolution, so probably should adjust.
Land area total, million hectares. Values do not change over time, so 1960 load is same as 1994 (in which all former republics are represented). Model does not currently even read this data series, however, much less use it; values are all zero.
Note: Land values for Belgium and Luxembourg missing in historical data, probably because are totaled by WRI. Used values from earlier 1995 specification.
Skipped meat production. Nyema got that for 1960 and 1970 (hard copy), but converted to thousand metric tons, not millions. Can we get more years:?
Skipped grain feed. Need to gather
Skipped aquaculture. Need to gather – Nyema is working on because data are in WRI.
Regional ocean fish catch share. Used marine catch in million metric tons for 1960 from WRI. It is not necessary to convert these to regional shares, because the preprocessor does this.
Freshwater fish catch. Used values in million metric tones for 1960 from WRI.
Cereal production, million metric tons. Used 1961 values from WRI for 1960; filled holes with most contemporary value or estimates based on 1995 load.
Roots and tuber, million metric tons. Used 1961 values from WRI for 1960; filled holes with most contemporary value or estimates based on 1995 load.
Pulse production, million metric tons. Used 1961 values from WRI for 1960; filled holes with most contemporary value or estimates based on 1995 load.
Skipped vegetable production (Nyema got only 1970) and fruit production (have no data at this point). Data in historical load are still 1995 data.
9. Issues/next steps on agriculture:
· Production. What do with crop production? Have cereals, roots/tubers, pulses, but not vegetables, fruits. Are vegetables/fruits or total crop production in WRI? No (total food index; total ag production index). Need meat production for preprocessor (WDI has livestock production index, 1961-98). In Nyema“Very old files” have files for Travaille – Meat with 1960 and 1970 data in it and Travaille – Veg with 1970 data. Discuss with him the sources (hard copy?) and whether vegetables might also include fruits. Look at FAO data options, on web and via CD. Might need to go to FAO
· WRI has grain used for feed as % of total grain consumption (1961-97) – check if need
· Land. Need to run former Soviet republics back to 1960/61 for all land categories. Nyema working on crop only? Need all. WDI 2000 has irrigated land as % of total crop land 1961-98; should pick up to replace current historic series from 1970-90, 5-year intervals.
· Trade. Need to convert pulses trade to million metric tons. Also, can we get fruit/vegetable trade? Need meat trade. Look at how economic/value trade is reconciled in preprocessor/routine with physical trade and determine what is needed.
· Fish. Add marine catch data to historic agricultural load (preprocessor will normalize) and look in Worldwatch for aquaculture series. May need some model change to phase in aquaculture (and to increase it in future). Nyema has prepared a file called “freshwater” that indicates at bottom it is total freshwater catch; is that fish?