1. Series needed in preprocessor. Energy production (ENP) for oil, gas, coal, total electricity, thermal electricity, hydroelectric, nuclear, and geothermal. Electricity is distributed/normalized to thermal, hydroelectric, nuclear, and geothermal. Geothermal is assigned to other renewable category. When processing is complete, have production in oil, gas, coal, hydroelectric, nuclear, and other renewable (basically geothermal). Energy exports and imports (ENX, ENM), no specificity by type. Oil, gas, coal, and hydroelectric reserves (RESER); coal resources (RESOR). Oil, gas, and synthetic oil resources are calculated from reserves (this should be fixed) and hydroelectric resources are set equal to reserves. In the economic preprocessor, energy trade may be constrained by value of total trade and by other trade specifications; hence ENX and ENM may need to be reduced in the initialization of the model.
2. Series needed in model initialization. Energy production (ENP) for oil, gas, coal, hydroelectric, nuclear, and other renewable; energy production growth rates for the same energy types; capital costs for production (QE) for all of the same forms plus unconventional oil; global (not country-specific) rate of cost advance in energy technology (ETECHADV) for all forms including unconventional oil; reserves (RESER) and resources (RESOR) for oil, gas, coal, and hydroelectric; energy price (ENPRI), global. Energy exports and imports (ENX and ENM), not specific to energy type, are re-calculated in initialization to be consistent with economic values.
3. Production. We used the WRI database (CD-ROM) for oil (liquid fuels) and coal (solid fuels) production from 1960 through 1995, converting to billion barrels of oil equivalent. We used the same source for gas production (gaseous fuels) from 1970 to 1995, and for hydroelectric, nuclear, and geothermal production from 1984 to 1995.
In bringing the historic series into the 1960 data load we encountered the following issues (should go back and break Soviet production for 1960 along proportional lines of 1992):
· Coal production. We assigned Czechoslovakia production to the Czech Republic because in later years we show almost none for Slovakia. We summed East and West Germany to get German production. We assigned Soviet production to the Russian Federation.
· Oil production. We assigned Soviet production to the Russian Federation.
· Gas production. Because we had 1970 and newer data, but not 1960 data, we arbitrarily put 2/3 of 1970 values into 1960.
· Electricity production. Not done yet. Data exist in WDI 2000 from 1960-69 (skimpy) and 1970-98 (substantial)
· Thermal electricity production. Not done yet.
· Hydroelectric production. Had no data before 1984. Used 1984 values for 1960 because hydroelectric growth rates are neglible.
· Nuclear production. Had no data before 1984. Compared 1984 and 1995 data for the relatively small number of countries with production in 1984. Made guesses about much lower levels of 1960 production. But WDI 2000 has electricity production from nuclear as % of total electricity back to 1960; should use.
· Geothermal production. Had no data before 1984. Compared 1984 and 1995 data for the relatively small number of countries with production in 1984. Made guesses about lower levels of 1960 production.
4. Trade. We used the WRI database (CD ROM) for total energy imports and exports from 1960 to 1995.
In bringing the historic series into the 1960 data load we encountered the following issues (should go back and break Soviet production for 1960 along proportional lines of 1992):
· Energy exports. There was no data for Russian federation energy exports: we used Soviet exports
· Energy imports. There was no data for German energy imports: we used the sum of West and East German. We also used Soviet imports for those of the Russian federation.
5. Consumption. We used the same source for commercial energy consumption from 1970 to 1995 and traditional energy consumption from 1980 to 1995.
6. Reserves and Resources.
On the web site for the World Energy Council (www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/ we found the Energy Data Centre with the complete Survey of Energy Resources. We used that to update the estimates of reserves/resources in the basic data load for IFs (basic data for end of century on reserves and for both 1960 and end-of-century load for resources):
· Coal reserves. We used total coal reserves in million tones from Table 1.1 of Chapter 1. These were nearly identical to numbers already in IFs. We found, however, that our earlier data set had numbers for Belgium and Yugoslavia that the new data set did not, so we carried over the earlier values for those two countries. We need yet to sum up the possible additional resources and compare with what is currently in the model; update based on some combination of the old and new resource data. The preprocessor will clean up some of the inconsistencies between reserves and resources.
· Oil Reserves. The WEC data may be good, but they are considerably less complete than data in the model from the Oil and Gas Journal (Dec 31, 1996). It makes sense to go to the journal again to update the reserves (perhaps on-line?). The WEC data include ultimate resource estimates (proved amounts in place plus additional estimated reserves recoverable) and there are none (except for the U.S.) in the basic data load. Pull from WEC and fill that column; keep an eye on the world total produced by the model to make sure the resource data plus preprocessor estimates (tied to reserve data) make sense.
· Gas Reserves. The WEC data seem to be about as extensive and quite similar to the earlier data from the Oil and Gas Journal (Dec 31, 1996). Probably best to gather the most recent data from the Journal and create a combined, most extensive set. But the WEC data on gas resources (proved amount in place, estimated additional amount in place, and estimated additional reserves recoverable) can be used to add a gas resource column to the IFs data load for the first time. Do so.
· Oil shale and bitumen/extra heavy oil resources. Chapters 3 and 4 provide the data necessary to pull off resource estimates and put into the ResorSyn column of IFs2000.mdb. Do so.
· Hydroelectric capability. WEC has gross exploitable capacity (if every drop were used across all fall distance) and economically exploitable capacity; compare latter with what is already in data load from WRI.
· Also have data from WEC on annual production for solar (electric and photovoltaic and passive): gather so that could add to geothermal and hydro to get total nonrenewable.
We can sum production series over time from 1960-1995 to compute cumulative production that should be added to resource estimates in 1995 to get those for 1960.
9. Data loaded into history files
Energy exports, 1960-95 (WRI)
Energy imports, 1960-95 (WRI)
Energy production, coal, 1960-95 (WRI, solid fuel)
Energy production, oil, 1960-95 (WRI, liquid fuel)
Energy production, gas, 1970-95 (WRI, gaseous fuel)
Energy production, electricity, 1970-97, skimpy until 1971 (WDI)
Energy production, geothermal, 1984-95 (WRI)
Energy production, hydro, 1984-95 (WRI)
Energy production, hydro as % of total electricity, 1960-97 (WDI)
Energy production, nuclear, 1984-95 (WRI)
Energy production, nuclear as % of total electricity, 1960-97 (WDI)
Energy consumption, commercial, 1970-95 (WRI)
Energy consumption, traditional, 1980-95 (WRI)
Energy commercial electricity consumption, 1990-95 (WRI)
Energy commercial oil consumption, 1990-95 (WRI)
Energy commercial gas consumption, 1990-95 (WRI)
Energy commercial coal consumption, 1990-95 (WRI)
Energy balance in transportation use, billion barrels of oil equivalent, 1960-95 (WRI)
Energy balance in residential use, billion barrels of oil equivalent, 1960-95 (WRI)
Energy balance in industrial use, billion barrels of oil equivalent, 1960-95 (WRI)
10. Data loaded into initialization files for 1960
Energy exports (ENX), 1960
Energy imports (ENM), 1960
Energy production, coal (ENP), 1960
Energy production, oil (ENP), 1960
Energy production, gas (ENP), 1970
Energy production, electricity (ENP), 1960 or first year (from WDI data)
Energy production, geothermal (ENP), 1984
Energy production, hydro (ENP), 1984
Energy production, nuclear (ENP), 1984 divided by 4 (perhaps should be still smaller)
9. Next:
· Production. Need to be able to separate thermal electricity out. So also need thermal electricity in 1984 as surrogate split (not too bad), or need % of thermal and geothermal in total electricity (already have nuclear and hydro back to 1960, although hydro is skimpy before 1971). In the meantime will set thermal at 90% of total electricity and split the rest to renewables.
· What do for QE? Probably guestimate. Also for ETECHADV.
· Prices. Need to enter historic global energy/oil price. (Also CO2 levels, food prices) Need some capability to display/use single/global historic series?
· Consumption. Not needed for historic load, just historic data files. Put in sectoral energy consumption/balances (residential, transportation, industrial) – Nyema needs to divide by 1000 more to get in right units.
· Reserves and Resources. Nyema is working with resource/reserve data from WEC and I have asked him to get most recent from Oil and Gas Journal.