International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term global futures. It assists with:
· Understanding the state of the world:
· Exploring trends and considering where they might be taking us
· Learning about the dynamics of global systems
Thinking about the future we want to see:
· Clarifying goals/priorities
· Developing alternative scenarios (if-then statements) about the future
· Investigating the leverage various agent-classes have in shaping the future
Assumptions that underlie IFs development and use:
· Global issues are become more significant as the scope of human interaction and human impact on the broader environment grow
· Goals and priorities for human systems are becoming clearer and are more frequently and consistently enunciated
· Understanding of the dynamics of human systems is growing rapidly
· The domain of human choice and action is broadening
The typical modes of use of the IFs modeling system are:
· Investigate the State of the World and one possible future (select DISPLAY on the main menu to explore the ‘Base Case’ at length)
· Undertake scenario analysis to create Alternative Futures (select SCENARIO ANALYSIS)
· Explore extensive historic data to see trends and relations (select DATA ANALYSIS)
· Use extended features of IFS, limited in Web version (select EXTENDED FEATURES)
What can you investigate with IFs? Examples include:
· Environmental Sustainability: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, world forest area, fossil fuel usage
· Social/Political Change: Life expectancy, literacy rate, democracy level, status of women, value change
· Demographic Futures: Population levels and growth, fertility, mortality, migration
· Food and Agriculture: Land use and production levels, calorie availability, malnutrition rates
· Energy: Resource and production levels, demand patterns, renewable energy share
· Economics: Sectoral production, consumption, and trade patterns and structural change
· Global System: Country and regional power levels
There is a web site for IFs at which you can obtain additional information: http://www.ifs.du.edu/pardee/index.aspx