Overview

After examining in IFs the long-term behavior of the regression model forecasts using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) distal driver approach and coefficients, we made a limited number of modifications.  One set of modifications was made to the treatment of the technological change term in the distal formulation (see this section). We also allow countries to transition from low-income status, given expected improvements in development status over the long-term.  An adjustment for monotonicity ensures that the forecast population comports with well-known patterns of rising chronic-cause mortality rates with age.  Finally, we include health spending in our model in order to better forecast potential outcomes.

• Mortality Transition for Low-Income Countries
• Maintaining Increase with Age in Non-Communicable Death Rates
• Elasticity of Child Mortality with Health Spending