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International Futures Help System

Outcomes

Overview

There are two main mortality-related outcomes from the Health Module: deaths by cause-category (DEATHCAT) and life expectancy (LIFEXPHLM). [1]   From these, IFs calculates other relevant outcome variables including: years of life lost (YLL; HLYLL in IFs); years lived with disability (YLD; HLYLD); disability adjusted life years (DALY; HLDALY); YLLs and YLDs among the working-age population (HLYLLWORK and HLYLDWORK, [2] respectively, the sum of which would be DALYs for the working population); morbidity and the probability of mortality during a user-defined age-range. [3]

The computation of life expectancy in the health module is a replica of the one in the population module, with the only difference being the mortality distribution.  In the initial year, these match because of the normalization process but they grow apart as the model advances.  DEATHCAT is computed by multiplying the mortality distribution from the Health Module by population age categories. [4]

 


[1] Note that LIFEEXPHLM replaces the old IFs variable LIFEEXP which was forecasted in the population module.

[2] As of October 2013 we were using the ages 20-64 as the range for computation of these two variables.  We may want to make that dynamic now that we have dynamic working life years.

[3] The default is child mortality (0 to 5) and adult mortality (15 to 60). 

[4] If the user turns off the health model switch ( hlmodelsw ), IFs stops computing all of the HL variables and DEATHCAT (also morbidity and the probabilities of mortality); they have values with the switch set to off because they take those of the base case, but they are not used to compute LIFEXP, which would then come from the older or legacy population model. It is important to note also that if the health model switch is off, it is impossible to expand the age categories beyond 100+.